Sceptical reader: – I like the idea of not having to work this cubicle, but surely if financial independence was possible, wouldn’t I already have heard about it?
Given they haven’t heard of it, most people assume that financial independence (FI) must be impossible. So they keep spending like drunken sailors on shore leave, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. After all, that’s what everyone else does.
One issue we have in the UK is that, unlike the US, we have few home-grown examples to follow. The good news is this – if you have read this far, either you already “get it” and are on the right path or you are open-minded enough at least to be intrigued. Either way, congratulations – you are the smart minority.
Following the path to FI means going against the conventional wisdom, peer pressure and against some powerful forces to conform. Remember that no individual lemming ever got laughed at – it feels comfortable in the herd, surrounded by its fellow lemmings, right up to the point where it goes off the cliff edge.
It’s funny that we all learn the parable of the Emperor’s New Clothes at primary school and we all get it.
How do we go from that savvy child to consumerist sucker with mortgage, cubicle job and an interest in The X Factor?
Contrarianism comes easier to some people than others. The Escape Artist’s educational experience at a comprehensive school in the Fens of Eastern England persuaded him from an early age it was possible that the majority of his peers could be wrong. Frequently.
From there, it was not a big leap to realise that a life strategy based on imitating them was going to be sub-optimal. This attitude is unlikely to win you any school popularity contests but hey, we have to play the hand we are dealt.
Conformity and groupthink continued at university where I did an economics degree. Not (just) amongst the students, but amongst the lecturers. This included being taught the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, rational expectations and other implausible theories.
They say that progress in academia advances one funeral at a time. Economics is full of hard sums and complicated graphs drawn by middle aged men in brown checked jackets with elbow patches. Their models work only as long as they are kept away from the real world. They are built on silly assumptions such as the obvious non-starter that all market participants are equally knowledgeable and act 100% rationally.
If you think that all stockmarket investors are equally knowledgeable and all act rationally, just visit a few internet bulletin boards, investment forums or comments sections. There you will enter a world of angry rants, bad spelling and self-appointed experts on “whisper” stocks: loss making tech companies and AIM listed Bolivian copper mining companies proving Mark Twain’s old adage that most mining investment opportunities are really just a hole in the ground with a liar at the top.
Economists tend to ignore fads, bubbles, crazes as the exceptions to the prevailing assumption of rationality. The more I see of the world, the more I am convinced that people operating based on biases, outdated folklore and herding are the rule not the exception. It’s in these areas of human misperception where all the interesting action and profit opportunities lie.
If you have been reading this blog and paying attention, you should by now have a good idea of why we find it hard to deviate from the crowd. It’s mostly down to evolution. It was by living in tribes and co-operating closely with each other that we moved from an intermediate spot in nature’s hierarchy (below sabre tooth tigers etc) up to the top of the food chain.
Living in a close community provided safety and a prehistoric version of a welfare state. If your neighbour might just make the difference between you starving to death or surviving based on sharing some scraps of food with you, you can see there might were some pretty powerful incentives to agree with them and offer the occasional compliment on how that whole rabbit-skin loincloth and mud look works really well for them. Arguing with your tribe would have meant risking ostracism and hence almost certain death for all but the most self-sufficient of people.
If you are thinking that all this is somehow irrelevant because it happened so long ago, bear in mind that we evolved over millions of years and modern humans only emerged about 100,000 years ago. Witches were being burned in Britain up until the 1735 Witchcraft Act put a stop to the fun. The gene pool of East Anglia may have improved a bit since then but, based on what I saw at school, I wouldn’t bet on it.
The modern world is vastly more complicated than the environment we evolved in. The more complex the world gets, the more decisions we need to make using mental shortcuts. That means more decisions made based on herding.
If you are interested in turning the insights above into cash, the equity market is an interesting place to observe the fun. I don’t think you can be a true value investor without some degree of rational contrarianism. When I buy an individual stock, I am looking for resilient and long-lived quality businesses that offer value – where they are temporarily cheap for an identifiable but superficial or temporary reason.
When high-tech equities were at all-time highs in 2000, “old economy” stocks traded at giveaway valuations. There is no such thing as a completely “safe” investment but buying blue chips on a safe 10% dividend yield was about as close as we will ever get. Value investing gifts like this were hiding in plain sight. “All” you had to do was sell those Muppet.com shares and do the opposite of everyone else. Easier said than done.
I was lucky to have lived through the 1999/2000 tech bubble whilst young enough to learn from it. For me, this remains the defining example of the possibility that the market can be wildly inefficient and the conventional wisdom can be wildly wrong. And no, I won’t be buying Facebook or Twitter stock anytime soon, not at current valuations.
In financial markets, however, memories are short. There are strong institutional reasons for this. As the City got more and more competitive and a more lucrative yet often unpleasant place to work, careers got shorter. Billions of dollars of capital are allocated by people in their early 30s that have not experienced a wide range of market cycles.
This may help explain the current irrational exuberance in bonds (fixed income). Jeremy Grantham has the best line when asked what investors would learn from the 2008/09 financial crisis. He replied.“In the short-term a lot, in the medium term a little, in the long-term, nothing at all. That would be the historical precedent.”
Bullshit is not a commodity in short supply in the City / on Wall Street. We are invited to believe things that are just not true all the time. Financial media continually repeat the sales mantra that more information always leads to better investment decisions. The reality is that the best use for your newspaper or CNBC is as a contrarian indicator. When I used to read the Sunday papers, I used the Money section was to look what the “experts” were touting and then do the opposite.
I have some friends with grown up jobs in the City. One in particular is an interesting source of misinformation. When I see him, I usually encourage him to give me stock tips. He puffs up with pride slightly every time. Then there may be a furtive tap of his nose and a glance around him as he prepares to hand down some priceless insight as to why I should buy some soon-to-be bust bank (2008) or mining fantasy (2011).
Bless him, I’ve never had the heart to tell him that the reason I’m so interested in his tips is that he has such a reliable track record in being wrong that he is a near perfect contrarian indicator. Bloody nice bloke though.
Contrarianism can only take us so far however. Even Warren Buffett needs some Charlie Munger types around him. Because we are all human, we cannot rely on sustaining our contrarianism if we are isolated in a hostile consumerist environment. Like the guy held in solitary and water-boarded by the CIA, sooner or later, we are probably going to crack. That’s why we need to find our own tribe and get some moral support from like-minded friends.